Development of the Deterioration Models for the Port Structures by the Multiple Regression Analysis and Markov Chain

Cha Kyunghwa; Kim Sung-Wook; Kim Jung Hoon; Park Mi-Yun; Kong Jung Sik

doi:10.7734/COSEIK.2015.28.3.229

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2015 Vol.28, Issue 3 Next Page

Development of the Deterioration Models for the Port Structures by the Multiple Regression Analysis and Markov Chain 다중 회귀분석 및 Markov Chain을 통한항만시설물의 상태열화모델 개발

2015. pp. 229-240

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Abstract

국내 수출입 물동량의 증가와 해운산업의 발달에 따라 항만시설물의 사용빈도 또한 증가 추세에 있으나, SOC의 해운항만부문의 투입 정부예산은 감축되어 왔다. 증가하는 사용빈도에 반하여 줄고 있는 예산으로 인해 항만시설물의 체계적이고 효율적인 유지관리 및 운영이 필요하다. 효율적인 유지관리 시스템 구축을 위해서 항만시설물이 위치한 지역, 구조물의 형태 및 취급화종, 시공 및 유지관리 수준과 같은 특성을 고려한 열화모델 개발이 필요하다. 항만시설물의 열화모델 개발은 시설물의 열화요인 분석과 열화데이터 수집 및 열화 모델 개발의 과정으로 수행하였다. 열화 모델 개발기법은 변수 특성에 따른 시간 의존적 상태변화를 반영할 수 있는 결정론적 방법인 다중 회귀분석과 변동성이 큰 자료들의 상태이력을 반영할 수 있는 확률론적 방법인 마코브 체인 이론을 이용하였다. 각 방법을 통해 잔교식 구조물과 블록식 구조물의 Project level의 상태열화모델을 제시하였다.

In light of the significant increase in the quantities of goods transported and the development of the shipping industry, the frequency of usage of port structures has increased; yet, the government’s budget for the shipping & port of SOC has been reduced. Port structures require systematically effective maintenance and management trends that address their growing frequency of usage. In order to construct a productive maintenance system, it is essential to develop deterioration models of port structures that consider various characteristics, such as location, type, use, constructed level, and state of maintenance. Processes for developing such deterioration models include examining factors that cause the structures to deteriorate, collecting data on deteriorating structures, and deciding methods of estimation. The techniques used for developing the deterioration models are multiple regression analysis and Markov chain theory. Multiple regression analysis can reflect changes over time and Markov chain theory can apply status changes based on a probabilistic method. Along with these processes, the deterioration models of open-type and gravity-type wharfs were suggested.

키워드

항만시설, 잔교식, 블록식, 상태열화모델, 다중 회귀분석, 마코브 체인

port structure, open type wharf, gravity type wharf, deterioration model, multiple regression analysis, Markov chain

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Information

Publisher :Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
Publisher(Ko) :한국전산구조공학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
Journal Title(Ko) :한국전산구조공학회 논문집
Volume : 28
No :3
Pages :229-240
Received Date : 2014-10-24
Revised Date : 2014-11-25
Accepted Date : 2015-03-03
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7734/COSEIK.2015.28.3.229

Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea ISSN:1229-3059(Print) 2287-2302(Online) 한국전산구조공학회 논문집

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